Market Watch for Friday November 10, 2017

Global Portfolio Advisory Group

November 10, 2017

Big Picture

Politics in the spotlight

Political news overshadowed economic releases this week as traders eyed the Trump tax plan, trade deals and Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on corruption. The world’s largest energy producer arrested a wide range of princes, businessmen and government officials starting last Sunday while freezing bank accounts to clamp down on graft. The actions – along with a rebalancing of global oil supply – helped send the price of crude at the start of the week to levels not seen since 2015. Turning to the Trump tax plan, it was being dissected by lawmakers through Thursday raising concern that Republicans may not be able to get the bill through to the White House. With regard to U.S. earnings, more than 85% of S&P 500 companies had reported results at the close of trade Wednesday with roughly three-quarters beating expectations according to FactSet. Per-share Q3 earnings at the firms have grown 6.4% led by the energy sector which is rebounding from a slump in 2016. Turning to the eurozone, the European Union released updated growth forecasts for the region upping GDP estimates to 2.2% for the year from 1.7% which would make it the fastest growing year in a decade. In related news, the European Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator resumed talks with his British counterpart Thursday with no indication an imminent breakthrough is in the cards. Also on the trade front, Canada did not sign the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership deal this week saying it wanted the right deal opposed to a fast deal. Looking ahead, the world’s largest economies – China, Japan, Great Britain and the U.S. – will be reporting market-moving data next week giving market watchers a look under the hood of the global economy.

 

 

Markets

U.S. stocks fall

U.S. stock benchmarks took a breather this week on the prospects of Trump’s tax overhaul being scuttled or delayed while the TSX inched higher thanks to gains in the energy sector. For the four days covered in this report, the Dow fell 78 pts. to end at 23,461, the S&P 500 shed 3 pts. to close at 2,584, the Nasdaq gave back 14 pts. to finish at 6,750 and the TSX rose 62 pts. to settle at 16,082.

 

Equities/Strategy

Markets continue to impress following U.S. election

Equities: Despite near term USD strength, we remain bullish on equities and prefer overweights in Canada, Europe and Emerging Markets at the expense of the U.S.  Our new Japan overweight,  noted in the last edition of this publication, is off to a good start and we believe the Japanese market is beginning to outperform on improving global demand, tight domestic capacity and ample liquidity. In the short term, our Japan overweight recommendation should be buoyed by receding North Korean tensions, favourable local fund flows (selling foreign bonds in favour of domestic equities as yields rise), and improving Japanese economic data. In the U.S., earnings season is past its midpoint and Q3’17 blended earnings growth has slowed to 4.7% y/y.  The lower growth rate is due to a $6.9B decline in insurance company earnings related to hurricane catastrophe damage. Excluding insurance from the index, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 would jump to 7.4%.  The blended revenue growth rate for the S&P500 in Q3 currently stands at 5.7%. The twelve month bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 is 2771.94, which implies approximately 8% price return potential based on the recent closing level. Some price consolidation is possible in the mid-November timeframe but otherwise we believe global equity markets are poised to close the year higher.  We are buyers of pullbacks but believe they will remain of single digit magnitude, potentially disappointing investors underweight equities.

 

 

 

This material does not include or constitute an investment recommendation, and is not intended to take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and talk to your investment advisor.

This publication has been prepared by ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. (SCI). This publication is intended as a general source of information and should not be considered as personal investment or tax advice. We are not tax advisors and we recommend that individuals consult with their professional tax advisor before taking any action based upon the information found in this publication. Opinions, estimates, and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither SCI nor its affiliates accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and/or commodity futures contracts. SCI, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors, or employees may from time to time acquire, hold, or sell securities and/or commodities and/or commodity futures contracts mentioned herein as principal or agent. SCI and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. All insurance products are sold through Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc., the insurance subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., a member of the Scotiabank Group. When discussing life insurance products, ScotiaMcLeod advisors are acting as Insurance Advisors (Financial Security Advisors in Quebec) representing Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc. This publication and all the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of SCI.


Market Watch for Friday November 3, 2017

Global Portfolio Advisory Group

November 3, 2017

Big Picture

U.K. raises rates, Trump nominates new Fed chief

Market watchers had a busy calendar of events to follow this week with plenty of GDP reports, political developments and monetary-policy news. Starting in the U.K., the Bank of England raised interest rates to 0.50% from 0.25%, the first rate rise in more than a decade. The bank also indicated it foresees two more rate increases before 2020 is out. In Washington, President Trump nominated Jerome Powell to head the Federal Reserve who is expected to follow the bank’s gradual approach to monetary policy. In related news, the Fed stood pat on rates Wednesday at its policy-setting meeting but signaled it remains on course to raise rates once more this year. Turning to the Bank of Japan, it refrained from tweaking its monetary policy at the bank’s meeting mid-week and made no changes to its asset-buying program. Meantime in Washington, the Trump tax plan was released Thursday which would take the corporate rate from 35% to 20%, compress a number of individual brackets and repeal taxes paid by individual estates by 2024. With regard to GDP prints, eurozone data showed the single-currency union decelerating from an annualized 2.6% in Q2 to 2.4% in Q3. Despite the contraction, the 19-member region remains on course to post its strongest year of growth since 2007. In related news, eurozone businesses and consumers are more upbeat about their prospects in almost 17 years as an economic sentiment indicator rose to its highest level since January 2001. In Canada, the economy recorded its first contraction in GDP since October 2016 after falling 0.1% in August. The negative print comes after GDP stalled in July and underscores the belief the Canadian economy is markedly slowing. Returning to Europe, nine leaders of the breakaway Spanish province Catalonia were jailed Thursday while the ousted president remained in Belgium after the region voted in favour of independence last weekend. Looking ahead, it’s jobs day north and south of the border with employment data released in both countries.

 

Markets

Bay Street stocks reach record highs

The TSX notched several consecutive record highs this week crossing and staying above the 16,000 pt. threshold. For the four days covered in this report the TSX moved ahead 21 pts. to end at 16,014, the Dow added 82 pts. to close at 23,434, the Nasdaq gained 13 to settle at 6,701 and the S&P 500 fell 2 pts. to finish at 2,579.

 

Equities/Strategy

Markets reach new highs on improving fundamentals

Strategy: Global equities, commodities and bond yields trended higher over the past month on encouraging economic data and earnings reports. In particular, manufacturing surveys, GDP data and labour market numbers have remained consistent with a solid pace of economic activity that continues to trigger ongoing upward revisions to growth forecasts. In the ongoing third-quarter reporting season, U.S. earnings and sales results continue to outperform analyst consensus estimates with earnings per share (excl. the insurance sector) growing at a very healthy 7.4% y/y rate, in large part thanks to stellar results from mega-tech companies. Markets have a litany of event risk to manage through over coming weeks including awaiting U.S. President Trump’s nomination of the next Chairperson of the Federal Reserve, Congress introducing a long-awaited tax reform proposal (talk of phasing in corporate tax cuts has weighed on equities recently), a possible ramping up of NAFTA headline risk heading into early 2018 as termination threats linger, etc. Central banks will likely figure prominently as well, with the Fed likely to affirm its intention to hike rates in December while the odds of the Bank of Canada doing the same look to be diminishing following a recent string of weaker data. We stick with our long-held strategy of overweighting equities / underweighting bonds with a bias toward cyclical sector exposure as economic fundamentals remain solid and recession risks for the coming 12 months are quite low.

 

 

This material does not include or constitute an investment recommendation, and is not intended to take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and talk to your investment advisor.

This publication has been prepared by ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. (SCI). This publication is intended as a general source of information and should not be considered as personal investment or tax advice. We are not tax advisors and we recommend that individuals consult with their professional tax advisor before taking any action based upon the information found in this publication. Opinions, estimates, and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither SCI nor its affiliates accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and/or commodity futures contracts. SCI, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors, or employees may from time to time acquire, hold, or sell securities and/or commodities and/or commodity futures contracts mentioned herein as principal or agent. SCI and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. All insurance products are sold through Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc., the insurance subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., a member of the Scotiabank Group. When discussing life insurance products, ScotiaMcLeod advisors are acting as Insurance Advisors (Financial Security Advisors in Quebec) representing Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc. This publication and all the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of SCI.