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Market Watch for November 17, 2017

Global Portfolio Advisory Group

November 17, 2017

Big Picture

Global growth remains on track

The health of the global economy was centre stage this week with key data pointing to continued growth – albeit modest – in the world’s largest economies. Starting in the U.S., manufacturing output registered a one-month 1.3% increase in October, notably higher than the combined manufacturing output change in each of the five prior months. The gauge measures the production output of manufacturers, mines and utilities which are important drivers of economic growth. Turning to China, its manufacturing output fell to 6.2% yoy in October down from 6.6% in September. Although moderating, the gauge points to still solid growth for the world’s second-largest economy. In Japan, GDP data Wednesday showed the country growing at an annualized pace of 1.4% in Q3. The country has now gone nearly two years without a contraction in GDP, the longest since 2001. Turning to the Eurozone, the flash Q3 GDP estimate left quarterly growth unrevised at 0.6% and yoy estimates unchanged at 2.5% which are the fastest rates of growth recorded in the region in almost a decade. Returning to the U.S., inflation remains muted with consumer prices rising only slightly in October from September. Yoy prices have advanced a more robust 2% with the two data points sending mixed signals to the U.S. Federal Reserve which must decide whether the economy can withstand a planned, third interest rate hike mid-December. In political news, the Trump tax plan cleared an important hurdle Thursday with the House passing it but the tax overhaul must now go to the Senate. Also of note, NAFTA talks restarted Thursday in Mexico City with top negotiators from each country staying home to allow working-level officials to sort through the most difficult issues, a move that doesn’t bode well for their self-imposed March 2018 deadline.

 

Markets

U.S. socks stage strong rebound

U.S. stocks pulled back to start the week but strongly rebounded Thursday recovering all of the losses south of the border. For the four days covered in this report, the Dow added 36 pts. to close at 23,458, the S&P 500 moved ahead 3 pts. to end at 2,585 and the Nasdaq gained 42 pts. to finish at 6,792. The TSX was the money loser among the four benchmarks giving back 104 pts. to settle at 15,935.

 

Equities/Strategy

Markets continue to impress following U.S. election

Strategy: Global markets grinded higher over the past month notwithstanding a bout of profit-taking in recent days. Economic reports around the world continue to point to solid growth momentum with 2017 on pace to post among the best global GDP growth rates since 2011. Economic momentum has broadened out to the four corners of the world over the past year with every major economy posting positive growth, reflecting a sturdier global recovery phase. This has translated into solid double-digit corporate earnings growth in the third quarter once the insurance sector has been excluded following its large, hurricane-related losses. Having avoided a correction in excess of 5% since February 2016, the S&P500 equity index has experienced an unusually long stretch without a meaningful pullback, leaving on the table some potential for transient profit-taking at some point.  Headline risks abound.  These include geopolitical noise out of the Middle East, with rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran possibly putting oil supplies at risk.  Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress continues its work on a tax reform bill that can pass both chambers, and the Federal Reserve approaches its meeting in mid-December, when the Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hike interest rates once again. However, with underlying fundamentals remaining supportive, we continue to view pullbacks as an opportunity to put cash to work.

 

This material does not include or constitute an investment recommendation, and is not intended to take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and talk to your investment advisor.

This publication has been prepared by ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. (SCI). This publication is intended as a general source of information and should not be considered as personal investment or tax advice. We are not tax advisors and we recommend that individuals consult with their professional tax advisor before taking any action based upon the information found in this publication. Opinions, estimates, and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither SCI nor its affiliates accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and/or commodity futures contracts. SCI, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors, or employees may from time to time acquire, hold, or sell securities and/or commodities and/or commodity futures contracts mentioned herein as principal or agent. SCI and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. All insurance products are sold through Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc., the insurance subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., a member of the Scotiabank Group. When discussing life insurance products, ScotiaMcLeod advisors are acting as Insurance Advisors (Financial Security Advisors in Quebec) representing Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc. This publication and all the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of SCI.

Market Watch for Friday November 10, 2017

Global Portfolio Advisory Group

November 10, 2017

Big Picture

Politics in the spotlight

Political news overshadowed economic releases this week as traders eyed the Trump tax plan, trade deals and Saudi Arabia’s crackdown on corruption. The world’s largest energy producer arrested a wide range of princes, businessmen and government officials starting last Sunday while freezing bank accounts to clamp down on graft. The actions – along with a rebalancing of global oil supply – helped send the price of crude at the start of the week to levels not seen since 2015. Turning to the Trump tax plan, it was being dissected by lawmakers through Thursday raising concern that Republicans may not be able to get the bill through to the White House. With regard to U.S. earnings, more than 85% of S&P 500 companies had reported results at the close of trade Wednesday with roughly three-quarters beating expectations according to FactSet. Per-share Q3 earnings at the firms have grown 6.4% led by the energy sector which is rebounding from a slump in 2016. Turning to the eurozone, the European Union released updated growth forecasts for the region upping GDP estimates to 2.2% for the year from 1.7% which would make it the fastest growing year in a decade. In related news, the European Commission’s chief Brexit negotiator resumed talks with his British counterpart Thursday with no indication an imminent breakthrough is in the cards. Also on the trade front, Canada did not sign the revised Trans-Pacific Partnership deal this week saying it wanted the right deal opposed to a fast deal. Looking ahead, the world’s largest economies – China, Japan, Great Britain and the U.S. – will be reporting market-moving data next week giving market watchers a look under the hood of the global economy.

 

 

Markets

U.S. stocks fall

U.S. stock benchmarks took a breather this week on the prospects of Trump’s tax overhaul being scuttled or delayed while the TSX inched higher thanks to gains in the energy sector. For the four days covered in this report, the Dow fell 78 pts. to end at 23,461, the S&P 500 shed 3 pts. to close at 2,584, the Nasdaq gave back 14 pts. to finish at 6,750 and the TSX rose 62 pts. to settle at 16,082.

 

Equities/Strategy

Markets continue to impress following U.S. election

Equities: Despite near term USD strength, we remain bullish on equities and prefer overweights in Canada, Europe and Emerging Markets at the expense of the U.S.  Our new Japan overweight,  noted in the last edition of this publication, is off to a good start and we believe the Japanese market is beginning to outperform on improving global demand, tight domestic capacity and ample liquidity. In the short term, our Japan overweight recommendation should be buoyed by receding North Korean tensions, favourable local fund flows (selling foreign bonds in favour of domestic equities as yields rise), and improving Japanese economic data. In the U.S., earnings season is past its midpoint and Q3’17 blended earnings growth has slowed to 4.7% y/y.  The lower growth rate is due to a $6.9B decline in insurance company earnings related to hurricane catastrophe damage. Excluding insurance from the index, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 would jump to 7.4%.  The blended revenue growth rate for the S&P500 in Q3 currently stands at 5.7%. The twelve month bottom-up target price for the S&P 500 is 2771.94, which implies approximately 8% price return potential based on the recent closing level. Some price consolidation is possible in the mid-November timeframe but otherwise we believe global equity markets are poised to close the year higher.  We are buyers of pullbacks but believe they will remain of single digit magnitude, potentially disappointing investors underweight equities.

 

 

 

This material does not include or constitute an investment recommendation, and is not intended to take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and talk to your investment advisor.

This publication has been prepared by ScotiaMcLeod, a division of Scotia Capital Inc. (SCI). This publication is intended as a general source of information and should not be considered as personal investment or tax advice. We are not tax advisors and we recommend that individuals consult with their professional tax advisor before taking any action based upon the information found in this publication. Opinions, estimates, and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither SCI nor its affiliates accepts liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. This publication is not, and is not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities and/or commodity futures contracts. SCI, its affiliates and/or their respective officers, directors, or employees may from time to time acquire, hold, or sell securities and/or commodities and/or commodity futures contracts mentioned herein as principal or agent. SCI and/or its affiliates may have acted as financial advisor and/or underwriter for certain of the corporations mentioned herein and may have received and may receive remuneration for same. All insurance products are sold through Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc., the insurance subsidiary of Scotia Capital Inc., a member of the Scotiabank Group. When discussing life insurance products, ScotiaMcLeod advisors are acting as Insurance Advisors (Financial Security Advisors in Quebec) representing Scotia Wealth Insurance Services Inc. This publication and all the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it are protected by copyright. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part, or referred to in any manner whatsoever, nor may the information, opinions, and conclusions contained in it be referred to without in each case the prior express consent of SCI.


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